When Javier Milei was elected president of Argentina in December 2023, the world’s media competed to paint the darkest picture possible.
The Guardian warned of “a victory that would undo 40 years of democracy.” The Nation warned of “Argentina’s Chainsaw Massacre.” Deutsche Welle declared Argentina would become “isolated in terms of foreign policy.”
Curiously, many of these voices keep urging us to give socialism just one more chance. After all, the seventeenth time’s the charm.
Venezuela wasn’t real socialism, you see. Neither was Cuba. Or Nicaragua. Or any of the other socialist experiments that demolished prosperity and liberty. The problem was simply incorrect implementation.
But when Milei came to power, there was no room for such optimism about his free-market reforms. ‘Experts’ competed to outdo one other with predictions of calamity.
A year on, these prophecies of doom have encountered an awkward obstacle: reality.
The Economist just reported that monthly inflation has fallen from 13% to under 3%. Its risk index has dropped from 2,000 to 750 – the lowest level in five years. Who knew that stopping the money printer might slow inflation? Apart from, well, everyone who’s ever opened an economics textbook.
And Argentina has achieved budget surpluses every month since January, the first time since 2008 of fiscal discipline.
The promised diplomatic isolation has proven elusive. China, which Milei was supposed to alienate forever, is now “a fabulous partner.” It turns out nations prefer trading with functioning economies.
Critics warned deregulation would destroy the rental market. Their definition of ‘destruction’ must be unusual – the market has doubled in size.
And foreign investors would flee. If by ‘fleeing’ they meant showing increased interest in South America’s second-largest economy, investors are indeed fleeing – to Argentina!
Oddly, economic freedom, sound money and fiscal discipline have led to economic improvement! Who could possibly have predicted that? Certainly not The Guardian.
The Wirtschaftswunder in post-war Germany, New Zealand’s transformation under Roger Douglas, and Hong Kong’s economic miracle must all have been mere flukes. Pure coincidence that they all followed the same boring recipe of economic freedom.
All those basic economics textbooks that suggest Milei might be onto something? Total fabrication. The so-called lessons of economic history? Capitalist propaganda. The pattern of free markets creating prosperity? Must be a statistical error.
We know this must be so.
Otherwise, those prophets of capitalist doom who keep telling us that socialism only needs one more try, and that free markets should never be given a chance must be wrong. And that just couldn’t be.
Could it?
A most predictable surprise
13 December, 2024