The record net outflow of New Zealanders migrating to Australia and further afield should be seen as an "orange light" rather than a red light, according to a research note by The New Zealand Initiative.
The report, Are Kiwis fleeing?, examines recent migration trends and finds that while the net outflow of 60,100 New Zealand citizens in the year to May 2024 is significant, it is currently offset by a near-record inflow of migrants who are likely more highly qualified than the average New Zealander.
"It is an orange light because New Zealand needs to be competitive with Australia if it is to retain its most able and productive citizens," says Dr Bryce Wilkinson, Senior Fellow at The New Zealand Initiative and author of the report. "Australia is a more productive country and pays higher wages."
Key findings from the report include:
- Despite the record outflow of citizens, New Zealand experienced a net inflow of 82,800 migrants in the year to May 2024, representing 1.6% of the resident population.
- Immigrants to New Zealand tend to be more highly qualified than the native-born population, and they outnumber those leaving.
- Studies have found little evidence of significant negative impacts on employment or wages for native-born New Zealanders due to immigration.
"New Zealand is struggling to provide things that are important to people, including better paying jobs, more affordable housing, better infrastructure, higher educational achievement, and access to hospitals and GPs," Dr Wilkinson added.
While the data does not support the notion of a straightforward 'brain drain' crisis, the report warns that action is needed. "It is a warning that the new Government needs to make real progress on multiple fronts if New Zealanders are to feel better about their prospects in this country," Dr Wilkinson concluded.
